The broad assumption is that the BP (LSE: BP) share price has done well out of the tragic war in Iran. That’s true, but only up to a point.

The day before the conflict erupted, on 27 February, shares in the FTSE 100 oil and gas giant closed at just under 478p. Today, on 5 June, they trade at 546p. That’s a rise of just over 14%.

Compared to the last big energy shock, that looks surprisingly modest. Within 12 months of Russia invading Ukraine, BP shares had surged around 60% as oil and gas prices exploded. This time, even with the International Energy Agency warning of the biggest energy shock in history, the response has been relatively modest. Why hasn’t BP surged further?

What’s going on with this FTSE 100 stock?

One reason is that investors still cling to hopes of a peace deal, before oil shortages really bite. Another theory is that oil and gas simply don’t matter as much as these days, because renewables now play a bigger role in the energy mix. I’m sceptical about that one too. The world will need fossil fuels for a while yet.

Gas supplies have also held up reasonably well so far, easing immediate panic. That may be another factor. Also, BP itself is suffering from Strait of Hormuz disruption as it struggles to get its own Gulf supplies to market.

Many will remember what happened after the initial Ukraine spike. Energy prices eventually cooled as alternative supplies emerged, and BP shares lost momentum. Investors may be wary of bidding the shares too high in case the pattern repeats itself.

Should we consider the oil giant today?

Some investors will also eye BP’s management with unease. It’s been churning through senior executives at an alarming rate. Cash-hungry politicians are another worry as they target the sector with new windfall taxes.

Looking at the share price chart since the war began, I can see repeated spikes and retreats. But the overall direction of travel since the first bounce is down. Given all the variables, trying to second-guess short-term movements in oil prices feels like a mug’s game to me. BP shares could move sharply in either direction from here, depending on the news flow. So I prefer focusing on the fundamentals instead.

The valuation looks attractive. The forward price-to-earnings ratio is just over eight, while the shares are forecast to yield a solid 4.7% in 2026 and 4.9% next year. Investors should also look at their wider portfolios. How much exposure to the energy sector do you personallyl have? I did that myself last year, and bought BP. I haven’t regretted it.

Despite the short-term volatility, I still think BP is worth considering for long-term growth and income potential. Investors could even out the odds by drip-feeding money into the stock, taking advantage of the dips. No doubt we’ll see a few more bumps in the weeks ahead.

Should you invest £5,000 in Bp P.l.c. right now?

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Harvey Jones owns shares in BP.